Bezeichnung der OE/DE

Ensemble Forecasts Maps of Warm Conveyor Belts

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North Pole
Shaded Contours: WCB Probability ({{ stage_info }})
Lines: Ensemble (50+1) Mean Geopotential Height at 850hPa (gpdm)
Model Data: ECMWF-ENS 1.0°
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Keyboard Navigation (click on map if not working):   ← -6h    → +6h    ↓-1Run    ↑+1Run    ␣ Swap Stage    ↵ Preload
00/12UTC runs update around 16:40/04:40UTC
WCB probabilities are identified at three different stages (inflow in the lower troposphere, ascent in the mid-troposphere, and outflow in the upper troposphere) using the EuLerian Identification ascending AirStreams tool (ELIAS 2.0; Quinting, J. F. and Grams, C. M. (2022): EuLerian Identification of ascending AirStreams (ELIAS 2.0) in numerical weather prediction and climate models – Part 1: Development of deep learning model, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 715–730, The underlying data are operational ECMWF IFS ensemble forecasts including 50 perturbed forecasts and 1 control forecast at 1.0° grid spacing. The source code for ELIAS 2.0 is available at, to the Young Investigator Group: Large-scale Dynamics and Predictability you can get here.

The implementation of the identification and scripting for the maps production was done by Moritz Pickl and Nicolas Lo. The page design and navigation logic was done by Marco Wurth.
The work was supported by the Helmholtz Association under the grant VH-NG-1243.